By bryan keefer
Now that Barack Obama is officially the (unofficial) Democratic nominee, political pundits’ favorite parlor game is starting up again: speculating about who will get the vice presidential nod.
The fact is, both the game and the pick itself are mostly about hype. However, the message that a presidential nominee sends with his choice can certainly have an impact.
Talk of the “dream ticket”—Obama-Clinton—has faded. While a Clinton pick might energize Democrats, Clinton is probably too polarizing, and the wounds from the campaign might run too deep to make her Obama’s pick.
So if the dream ticket is off the table, what factors might Obama consider when making his decision?
Auditioning second fiddles: In our interactive graphic, find out the pluses and minuses of the many possible running mates that Obama might be considering.Conventional wisdom holds that the VP pick is about winning a state for the ticket, or appealing to a specific demographic. However, that wisdom is being challenged: the pick “doesn’t matter in picking up a state or region or bloc of voters—I think that is greatly overstated,” argues David Greenberg, a professor of history at Rutgers University.
Vice presidents, Greenberg points out, rarely carry a state for the ticket unless that state is very competitive (one exception this year could be Ohio). John Edwards, for example, failed to win North Carolina for John Kerry in 2004.
Geography “is only a factor if you’re a regional candidate who’s going to need to be sold in other regions,” says Mark Schmitt, a senior fellow at the New America Foundation. “I don’t think Obama has the problem of being a regional candidate.”
Someone who conveys a sense of deep political experience might be the sidekick that Obama needs. However, that person shouldn’t contradict Obama’s outsider status. “You do want to project an image of somebody who reinforces the message of change, but probably also gives you the image of stolidity, of respectableness,” argues Schmitt.
That means the field is fairly wide open, with probably more options than the list of potential Republican VPs.
Beyond Clinton, names in heavy rotation among pundits include Kansas Gov. Kathleen Sebelius, New Mexico Gov. Bill Richardson and Ohio Gov. Ted Strickland (who has vehemently denied wanting the job). Other possibilities include Senators Evan Bayh, Jim Webb and Joe Biden. Though having two senators on the same ticket is relatively rare, it isn’t unprecedented: John F. Kennedy and Lyndon B. Johnson did it in 1960.
Look for word of the pick to leak a few weeks before the Democratic National Convention, which begins August 25.
Until then, expect more denials from interested parties like Gov. Strickland. Lyndon B. Johnson, discussing his own VP selection, provided some advice for those who seek the office: the “man who runs away from it is very wise. I wished I’d run farther away from it than I did…And don’t you ever be a candidate and don’t let anybody else be a candidate, and tell them anybody that runs for it never gets it.”
Take the test: weigh in with other FLYP readers to see who in the long list of potential VPs the public wants Obama to pick as part of a dream ticket.
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