Swine Flu: The News to Listen For

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Women standing in line in Mexico City, wearing face masks to protect against the spread of swine flu. Photo by Newscom

The “swine flu” that has broken out in the U.S. and Mexico is in fact a virus combining the RNA of pigs, birds and humans. Too little is yet known about its characteristics and spread to make a definitive judgment about the threat it represents—especially in the U.S., where cases have followed a normal course for influenza and no one has died.

Nevertheless, the World Health Organization today raised the threat level from three to four, indicating that the virus is clearly passing from human to human and can become a community-level threat. The next threat level would be triggered by a pandemic-level threat in two neighboring countries, and level six, which requires finding the virus spreading at that level among humans in a separate area of the world, would indicate a full-fledged pandemic. Check out the spread of the virus here, on Google Maps.

A woman sits under a billboard warning people to wear masks in Mexico. Photo by Newscom

Laurie A. Garrett, senior fellow for global health at the Council on Foreign Relations, advises the media and public to listen for word that the new outbreak is—or is not—resistant to the antiviral drug oseltamivir, which is marketed under the trade name Tamiflu. The Centers for Disease Control announced in December 20 that they had found a strain of “swine flu” that is Tamiflu-resistant, she says. “If we see a recombination [of the current virus] with the Tamiflu resistant strain, I would say it is time to go to a higher level of pandemic alert.”
Listen to Garrett’s interview with Robert McMahon, deputy editor of CFR.org. And, be sure to check out this media briefing from the CDC.