Despite the enthusiasm of millions of primary voters, Democratic Party insiders may end up picking the candidate.

Cue the smoky-back room music.

Despite the ever-larger voter turnout and palpable excitement among Democrats, their candidate will probably be chosen in the least democratic way possible: by unelected superdelegates who can ignore the wishes of millions of voters.

It comes down to arithmetic. Voters’ preferences bind how 3,253 of 4,049 convention delegates will vote. These are called “pledged delegates” because they have no discretion in how they vote, at least in the first round of convention balloting. The remaining 796—so-called superdelegates who are mostly Democratic office holders and party officials—are free to vote however they want at the party’s August convention in Denver.

That should not be an issue if the voters had a clear preference. But, despite Barack Obama’s recent winning streak, the actual vote and delegate totals have been roughly split down the middle. In fact, “winning” a state counts for very little, since delegates are divided proportionately: In a close race, neither candidate really loses.

Although Obama today leads Hillary Clinton in pledged delegates, it is becoming increasingly possible that neither candidate will win enough pledged delegates to have amassed a winning majority when the popular voting ends.

Imagine this nightmare scenario: The two candidates complete the run of primaries, which finish in Puerto Rico on June 7, with neither having secured the magic 2,025 delegate votes (half plus one of the total) that guarantee nomination. Say, Obama has around 1,800 delegates and Clinton about 1,450 (totals consistent with Obama doing a bit better in the March–June voting than he has done in the January–February voting). Then, Clinton could win by collecting 575 of the superdelegate votes, even though Obama would have “won” the primaries.

Put crudely, the votes of a few hundred party officials could outweigh the votes of millions of committed, enthused Democrats and other voters.
With our rollover graphic, find out about what’s happening in Florida and Michigan, two states that could change the outcome of the election.For some of these delegates, the convention is simply the best party they get invited to, and they get that privilege every four years. For others, it’s about their identification as party activists. “I’ve earned my seat at the table because I’ve knocked on doors and block-walked in Texas in 100 degree heat,” said David Hardt, president of the Young Democrats of America and a superdelegate from Texas. However, Hardt said he is concerned about how the process is playing out this year: “I’m honestly very worried that those of us who are superdelegates are going to have to decide this election.”

 How will the superdelegates make their choices? Some will certainly vote out of personal conviction, while others might be inclined to follow the will of their home state’s voters. Hardt, who is still uncommitted, explained his own approach. “I will look in depth at both campaigns and what they have to offer, and also take into account my personal beliefs.” Mark Bryant, an uncommitted superdelegate and Kansas City attorney, said, “ultimately, I will vote for the candidate who has the best chance of winning.”

Other superdelegates might simply wait for the best offer, in the tradition of good ol’ politics. Political junkies are already counting “soft” superdelegate commitments. Sen. Ted Kennedy’s endorsement of Obama surely puts him on the Obama list, just as New York Gov. Eliot Spitzer’s and Arkansas Gov. Mike Beebe’s commitments to Clinton presumably mean they will vote for her at the convention.

The catch is that as superdelegates, they are free to change their minds—and their votes—up until the very last moment. That’s why the predictions on superdelegates’ votes keep changing.

“This could be disastrous,” said Joe Andrews, a superdelegate and chairman of the Democratic National Committee during the last two years of Bill Clinton’s presidency. “I was always fearful that what seems to be happening—party insiders selecting the candidate—might happen.”

Andrews, who supports Clinton, worries that if she wins the nomination “because of my vote, but doesn’t win the popular vote over the course of the primaries, it could be a serious problem in the general election.”

In a year filled with electoral suspense, the ultimate surprise could be that the real Democrat in this fall’s election could turn out to be a Republican.